Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction: Cincinnati Reds +1.5

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The Pick

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-112)

Why It Works

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-112) is still the side because Chase Burns and Sal Stewart give Cincinnati Reds the cleaner path to the handful of moments that usually decide this kind of game. The supporting numbers: 695 hits vs. 745, 113 home runs vs. 123.

Sal Stewart gives Cincinnati Reds a real middle-of-the-order anchor with 64 RBIs and 19 home runs. If Chase Burns does his job, Cincinnati Reds has the arm talent to keep this game on script after 118 strikeouts and 9 quality starts so far.

The season-long hit count is not lopsided enough to scare this off either (695 versus 745), especially if Cincinnati Reds gets the better bullpen innings. There is enough power in the profile too, with 113 home runs on the board for Cincinnati Reds.

Odds & Context

Philadelphia Phillies is 51-42 entering this matchup, while Cincinnati Reds is 42-49. The market has Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-112) pregame.

Risk to Watch

A baseball moneyline can still flip on one ugly inning, one bullpen leak, or one cluster of extra-base contact. That is the part to watch even when the matchup still points to the right side.