New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies prediction: Colorado Rockies +1.5

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The Pick

Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-115)

Why It Works

Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-115) is the side because Colorado Rockies has been better in the categories that usually decide a pregame moneyline. The quick case: 152 runs scored vs. 122, 35 home runs vs. 28.

Colorado Rockies has been the more productive lineup so far, scoring 152 runs compared with 122 for New York Mets. It has also done a better job creating traffic, owning a 304-262 edge in hits. The power edge is on this side too, with 35 home runs compared with 28 for New York Mets.

Mickey Moniak adds another steady bat, bringing 21 RBIs and 11 home runs into the matchup. On the mound, Chase Dollander has logged 42 strikeouts and 1 quality starts.

Odds & Context

New York Mets is 13-22 entering this matchup, while Colorado Rockies is 14-22. The market has Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-115) pregame. Colorado Rockies also owns the RBI edge, 147 to 115.

Risk to Watch

A baseball side can still swing on one inning, one bullpen leak, or one badly timed extra-base hit. That is the downside of backing a narrower edge, even when the profile points the right way.