Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction: Philadelphia Phillies ML

Watch the breakdown

The Pick

Philadelphia Phillies ML (-125)

Why It Works

Philadelphia Phillies ML (-125) is still the side because Cristopher Sanchez and Kyle Schwarber give Philadelphia Phillies the cleaner path to the handful of moments that usually decide this kind of game. The supporting numbers: 370 hits vs. 356, 55 home runs vs. 61.

Kyle Schwarber gives Philadelphia Phillies a real middle-of-the-order anchor with 36 RBIs and 20 home runs. If Cristopher Sanchez does his job, Philadelphia Phillies has the arm talent to keep this game on script after 80 strikeouts and 7 quality starts so far.

The season-long hit count is not lopsided enough to scare this off either (370 versus 356), especially if Philadelphia Phillies gets the better bullpen innings. There is enough power in the profile too, with 55 home runs on the board for Philadelphia Phillies.

Odds & Context

Cincinnati Reds is 24-23 entering this matchup, while Philadelphia Phillies is 24-23. The market has Philadelphia Phillies ML (-125) pregame.

Risk to Watch

A baseball moneyline can still flip on one ugly inning, one bullpen leak, or one cluster of extra-base contact. That is the part to watch even when the matchup still points to the right side.