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The Dolphins emerge from a 7‑10 2025 campaign with a brand‑new front office, a fresh coaching staff and a roster that looks more like a rebuild than a continuation. 2026‑27 will be the first full season for GM Jon‑Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley, and the moves they’ve made suggest a clear timeline: dump the aging veterans, stock the roster with upside, and give rookie quarterback Malik Willis a chance to lead a revamped offense.
Below is the latest context, the key pieces to watch, and the betting angles that will shape the Dolphins’ odds in the AFC East.
1. Off‑Season Overhaul – Who’s In, Who’s Out
| Category | Notable Moves | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Signed Malik Willis to a three‑year, $67.5 M deal (ESPN) | Gives Miami a mobile, dual‑threat starter after the rumored departure of Tua Tagovailoa. |
| Wide Receiver | Traded Jaylen Waddle to Denver (first‑round, 3rd‑round & 4th‑round picks) | Clears cap space and adds draft capital; opens a slot for new receivers. |
| Safety | Traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Jets for a 7th‑round pick (The Phinsider) | Signals a shift to younger secondary talent. |
| Pass‑Rush | Signed OLB David Ojabo (one‑year) and re‑signed Cameron Goode; released Bradley Chubb (The Phinsider) | Opens a competition for the edge; adds depth while shedding a high‑cost veteran. |
| Special Teams | Added kicker Zane Gonzalez, punter Bradley Pinion, and long‑snapper Taybor Pepper (official Dolphins site) | Stabilizes the kicking unit after a season of inconsistency. |
| Draft Picks | 1st‑round OT Kadyn Proctor, CB Chris Johnson, LB Jacob Rodriguez, TE Will Kacmarek, WR Caleb Douglas, plus a host of mid‑round prospects (DolphinsWire) | Provides the building blocks for a stronger line, secondary and play‑making corps. |
| Veteran Re‑signings | CB A.J. Green III, TE Greg Dulcich, LB Cameron Goode, DT Matthew Butler, S Willie Gay Jr. (official site) | Retains proven contributors while the rest of the roster turns over. |
Bottom line: Miami has cleared roughly $175 M in dead‑money and added over $150 M in new contracts, positioning the team for a “young‑up‑and‑hungry” window.
2. Coaching Carousel – Jeff Hafley Takes the Helm
- Head Coach: Jeff Hafley (hired Jan 19, 2026 after firing Mike McDaniel) – former Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator, known for a physical, process‑driven philosophy.
- Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Slowik (promoted from senior pass‑game coordinator) – will likely lean on Willis’s mobility and the new tight‑end tandem of Dulcich & Middleton.
- Defensive Coordinator: Sean Duggan – a former linebackers coach with a reputation for aggressive blitz packages; expected to call the defense directly.
- Key Position Coaches:
- Joe Barry – run‑game coordinator/linebackers (retained).
- Austin Clark – defensive line (retained).
- Ryan Downard – secondary/Passing‑Game Coordinator (new from Packers).
- Jahmile Addae – cornerbacks (new from Buffalo).
The staff blends familiar faces (Barry, Clark) with fresh Green Bay connections (Duggan, Downard) and a few college hires (e.g., RB coach Ladell Betts). The consensus among insiders (Yahoo Sports, SI) is that Hafley will prioritize a “run‑first” identity on offense while demanding a high‑tempo, turnover‑driven defense.
3. Key Players to Watch
| Player | Role | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis (QB) | Starter | Mobile, 6‑4, 235 lb; 2024 college stats: 3,200 yds, 24 TDs. Expect a dual‑threat scheme that leans on play‑action and designed runs. |
| De’Von Achane (RB) | Feature back | 2025: 1,050 rushing yards, 8 TDs; explosive speed makes him a perfect fit for Hafley’s “run‑first” approach. |
| Greg Dulcich (TE) | Primary tight end | 2025: 26 receptions, 336 yds, 1 TD; will be a safety‑valve and red‑zone threat. |
| Kadyn Proctor (OT) | Left tackle | 2026 rookie; expected to protect Willis’s blind side and anchor the run game. |
| Chris Johnson (CB) | Cornerback | First‑round pick; tasked with shoring up a secondary that lost Fitzpatrick. |
| Jacob Rodriguez (LB) | Linebacker | Athletic rookie; could become a three‑down defender in Duggan’s scheme. |
| A.J. Green III (CB) | Veteran leader | Re‑signed; provides mentorship for the young secondary. |
4. Schedule & Divisional Outlook
- Season Opener (Week 1, Sep 8): @ New England Patriots – Dolphins open as +3.5 underdogs (decimal 2.45) on most sportsbooks. A win would instantly put Miami ahead in the AFC East.
- Key Division Games:
- @ Buffalo Bills (Week 4) – Dolphins are +7 (2.70) on the line; the Bills remain the AFC East’s benchmark.
- Home vs. New York Jets (Week 7) – Dolphins listed as -2 (1.95) favorites; a chance to solidify a lead in the division.
- Home vs. New England Patriots (Week 13) – Dolphins again -1.5 (1.93) favorites, reflecting a potential mid‑season surge.
The AFC East remains the toughest division in the league, but Miami’s schedule gives them three chances to win at least two division games before the bye (Week 9). Winning those matchups will be crucial for any playoff push.
5. Betting Angles
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Willis vs. the Spread – Early‑season betting markets have the Dolphins at +3.5 in Week 1. If Willis can generate 150+ yards of total offense (a realistic target given his dual‑threat skill set), the spread should move in Miami’s favor quickly.
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Over/Under on Total Points – Miami’s new offensive philosophy leans on the run, while the defense is expected to be aggressive but still raw. Most sportsbooks set the Week 1 total at 44.5 points (under). Expect the line to drift up if the Dolphins’ run game clicks early.
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Prop Bet: First‑Quarter Score – With a mobile QB and a strong RB, the Dolphins are a good candidate for a first‑quarter over 10 points prop, especially against a Patriots defense that has struggled against mobile quarterbacks in 2025.
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Season‑Long Futures – Miami is currently listed at +2500 (decimal 26.00) to win the AFC East. The odds reflect the division’s depth, but the combination of a fresh coaching staff and a high‑upside roster makes the Dolphins a value pick for bettors looking for a long‑shot with upside.
Betting tip: Keep an eye on the Willis‑Achane combo. If the Dolphins post 150+ yards rushing in the first two weeks, the spread will likely shift +2 points in Miami’s favor, creating a profitable early‑season play.
6. Risks & Red Flags
- Quarterback Transition: Willis is untested at the NFL level. A slow start could see the Dolphins fall behind early in games, forcing them into a pass‑heavy approach that the offensive line may not yet be equipped to handle.
- Secondary Depth: Trading Fitzpatrick and losing other veteran safeties leaves the secondary thin. Injuries or growing pains could expose the Dolphins to big plays, especially against elite AFC East passing attacks.
- Pass‑Rush Production: With Chubb gone and Phillips traded, the edge rush is a work‑in‑progress. If the new pass‑rushers (Ojabo, Goode) can’t generate pressure, the defense may rely too heavily on blitzes, leading to big‑play vulnerability.
7. Bottom Line
The 2026‑27 Miami Dolphins are a rebuilding‑by‑design squad. The front office has cleared cap space, added a high‑upside quarterback, and stocked the roster with a mix of NFL‑ready talent and promising rookies. Jeff Hafley’s defensive pedigree and Bobby Slowik’s offensive creativity give the team a clear identity: run‑first, aggressive defense, and a mobile quarterback who can extend plays.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins start as modest underdogs but present several value opportunities—especially on the spread and first‑quarter props—if the new offense clicks early. Keep a close eye on the Willis‑Achane partnership and the development of the rookie secondary; those will be the catalysts that turn a franchise reset into a playoff contender.
Fins up, and may the odds be ever in your favor.