Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Hornets

Quick read:

Take the Wizards to close out this one. It’s a simple physics problem: Washington grabs 44 boards a night, Charlotte manages 46, and the difference between those two numbers is the only thing keeping this game from being a blowout. When the Wizards win the glass, they turn Charlotte’s misses into second-chance points and limit the Hornets to one possession per possession. It’s like trying to arm-wrestle someone who is also lifting weights while you’re holding a balloon.

Charlotte’s defense is currently a suggestion, not a plan. They are allowing the Wizards to shoot 28.6% from three, which sounds like a good number for a defense until you realize it’s a terrible number for an offense in a league where everyone is chasing the logo. If Washington is putting up those numbers, they are finding rhythm, and rhythm is the one thing the Wizards have that the Hornets are actively trying to steal. The Hornets’ 46 rebounds are nice, but they’re like collecting seashells on a beach where someone else is building a castle.

The only real risk here is if Washington’s shooting percentage dips into the single digits, turning this into a chess match of missed free throws and awkward long two's. But at these odds, you’re not paying for a miracle, you’re paying for the fact that the Wizards are the better team on the glass, and in the NBA, the glass is king.