Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: Chicago Cubs ML

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The Pick

Chicago Cubs ML (-122)

Why It Works

Chicago Cubs ML (-122) is still the side because Shota Imanaga and Nico Hoerner give Chicago Cubs the cleaner path to the handful of moments that usually decide this kind of game. The supporting numbers: 417 hits vs. 453, 59 home runs vs. 52.

Nico Hoerner gives Chicago Cubs a real middle-of-the-order anchor with 31 RBIs and 4 home runs. If Shota Imanaga does his job, Chicago Cubs has the arm talent to keep this game on script after 67 strikeouts and 6 quality starts so far.

The season-long hit count is not lopsided enough to scare this off either (417 versus 453), especially if Chicago Cubs gets the better bullpen innings. There is enough power in the profile too, with 59 home runs on the board for Chicago Cubs.

Odds & Context

Chicago Cubs is 29-24 entering this matchup, while Pittsburgh Pirates is 27-26. The market has Chicago Cubs ML (-122) pregame.

Risk to Watch

A baseball moneyline can still flip on one ugly inning, one bullpen leak, or one cluster of extra-base contact. That is the part to watch even when the matchup still points to the right side.